18 janvier 2007

Chose promise, chose due...


Extrait vidéo de la chaine BLOOMBERG TV (chaine financière sur le satellite), enregistré le 22 Décembre 2006.

Un économiste de la Société Gérérale est interviewé pour commenter les dernières décisions et explications de Jean-Claude TRICHET, Président de la Banque Centrale Européenne (BCE) quant à la politique monétaire européenne actuelle et à venir.

On parle évidemment beaucoup d'inflation (l'obsession de la BCE et des milieux financiers, l'inflation cette "euthanasie des rentiers" comme l'appelait KEYNES), et très vite on parle des risques inflationnistes et donc du marché de l'emploi qui s'améliorerait (ah?). Mais il est vrai que les taux de chômage sont en baisse (même apparente) et ça, ça "REND NERVEUX LA BCE"! Le reste je vous le laisse écouter.
Juste pour bien comprendre quelques points de jargon économiste:

- les "effets de second tour": en résumé, c'est lorsque les entreprises répercutent leur hausses de coûts et surtout que les salariés se rendant compte que le coût de la vie augmente, se mettent à réclamer des hausses de salaire...

- et bien sûr: le
"taux de chômage d'équilibre", c'est le nom français du... NAIRU (taux de chômage minimum qui permet d'équilibrer l'inflation, d'éviter qu'elle n'augmente, en faisant pression sur les salariés).
Ecoutez bien c'est d'une limpidité qui devrait convaincre plus d'un sceptique!


La video est en NEWS de mon autre site, sur cette page:
http://lenairu.free.fr/pages/17alhomepag.html
ou directement sur DailyMotion depuis aujourd'hui:
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x10ix3_le-chomage-voulu


Notez d'abord à quel point cette inflation est surveillée comme le lait sur le feu (à 2,1% au lieu de 2% le gars parle de RISQUE... Mot qui revient un nombre assez impressionnant de fois, toujours associé à Inflation bien sûr...).

J'ai retranscrit le passage clé ci-dessous:

"... aujourd'hui il y a une amélioration de la situation de l'emploi, il y a des tensions sur certains marchés du travail et on voit bien que même si les taux de chômage restent élévés (il le reconnaît, NDLR!), on peut se dire qu'HISTORIQUEMENT ON EST AU NIVEAU DES TAUX DE CHOMAGE D'EQUILIBRE (NAIRUs donc, NDLR!), VOIRE LEGEREMENT EN DESSOUS, et ça ça crée FORCEMENT un RISQUE ou une NERVOSITE du côté de la BCE..."

FORCEMENT!!!!

Nerveux qu'il est Monsieur TRICHET quand le chômage baisse un peu trop donc...

"C'est bien cette accélération des salaires qui est mise en avant dans le discours de la BCE comme principal RISQUE de diffusion de l'inflation pour 2007".

Clair non?
Peu auparavant, notre économiste avait souligné dans l'interview que le Dieu Trichet avec prononcé dans sa conférence de presse le mot "attentif" et que ce mot est considéré comme le CODE (il emploie ce terme) pour indiquer aux marchés (financiers) que la BCE prenait très au sérieux (elle est "attentive"!) les risques en question...

Pour ceux qui ne seraient pas habitués à ce type de médias (Bloomberg), de tels propos et de telles explications sont loin d'être des cas isolés (ils sont entre eux, c'est une chaine d'initiés), et ce genre de raisonnement y est très courant.

A tel point que maintenant j'anticipe assez bien quand ils RISQUENT de l'évoquer. Pour mieux les enregistrer...

Et convaincre un monde incrédule que non le chômage n'est pas qu'un Fléau, mais aussi un outil de régulation et de contrôle social...
Visitez aussi mes autres sites:

Comments:
ça fait un moment que je suis convaincu, d'ailleurs toute la politique de la BCE vise à cela puisque depuis 1,5 ans les taux d'intérêt de la banque centrale augmentent de 0,25% tous les trimestre pour contraindre toute poussée inflationniste liée à une reprise de la consommation. Qaunt au chomage, bah il se maintient même si la manipulation pour l'annoncer en baisse continue. Heureusement elle ne trompe plus beaucoup de monde.

Enzo d'aviolo
http://www.etiennefillol.org/blog
 
Tiens Nicolas en parlait aussi :
http://jegpol.blogspot.com/2007/01/compression.html

Ce qui me soucie maintenant, c'est comment sortir du système !!!
Quelles solutions ?
:-)
 
Bonjour,

Suite à votre visite chez moi (suite au commentaire de Filaplomb) et votre conseil, je me suis un peu renseigné pour faire un billet sur le NAIRU, mais n'étant pas très fortiche sur la politique monétaire j'ai un peu de mal à développer la section "à qui profite le crime ?", élément indispensable de ma démonstration.

Merci de m'éclairer par un peu vulgarisation monétariste...
 
Finalement, j'ai trouvé toutes les explications que je voulais sur un de vos sites.

Ce n'est pas facile à vulgariser ce machin là... Mais je me lance dans mon blog, en vous citant outrageusement, sans respecter le copyright (n'hésitez pas à me contacter si ça vous choque)!

Et bravo !
 
Une autre petite citation à verser au dossier:

"La profitabilité des entreprises restera structurellement élevée, grâce à la mondialisation, la productivité élevée, la faiblesse des créations d'emplois et la faiblesse des charges financières", selon Jean-Pierre Petit, responsable de la recherche économique et de la stratégie d'investissement chez Exane BNP-Paribas.
source:
http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-3234,36-860954@51-790726,0.html
 
Merci Nicolas pour cette contribution supplémentaire, vous allez voir, avec cette clé du NAIRU, vous allez vous mettre à repérer (et à comprendre!) des choses étranges!

En tout cas, cette phrase va rejoindre ses collègues dans ma page de citations...

Je compte former une brigade de NAIRUbusters (à l'image des anciens Ghostbusters!), vous êtes... embauché!

Comme quoi le NAIRU peut quand même créer de l'emploi!

GdB
 
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